How Landmines Threaten Ukraine’s Agriculture and the World’s Food Supply

Since the beginning of Russia‘s full-scale war against Ukraine, it has continuously deployed landmines across Ukrainian territory. Approximately 25 % of Ukraine’s land is now covered with landmines, which poses a severe threat not only to Ukraine’s natural environment (by contaminating the soil with toxic substances and destroying vegetation) but also to the safety of its inhabitants. The presence of landmines creates a long-term security problem, and as a result, the economic recovery is and will be significantly slowed. Plus, it is important to acknowledge that, unlike other military weapons whose effects typically diminish after the conflict is finished, landmines will not stop being active. So, even after the war, the removal of this type of weapon will still exhaust Ukraine and limit its socioeconomic recovery for many years.

Ukraine has played a crucial role in the global food supply market for a long time, so this conflict affects more countries than just Ukraine. Actually, it affects millions of people across Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The question concerns Ukraine’s recovery and the broader impact on the global food supply chains. The first part is focused on Russia’s activities that are responsible for making Ukraine’s territories full of landmines. The second part concerns why Ukraine plays a key role in the world food market and how some countries deal with the crisis. In the last part, I will present some of the official plans for demining Ukraine’s territory and recommendations for its future.

Russia’s landmines as a tactical weapon

Russia’s first strike against Ukraine came more than a decade ago when it restricted the import of certain Ukrainian products in an attempt to prevent Ukraine from deepening its ties with the European Union. At that time, Russian politician Sergei Glazyev hinted that if Kyiv signed the Association Agreement, Russia could no longer guarantee Ukraine’s status as a state, warning that such a move would lead to social and political unrest in the future. Despite these obstacles, Ukraine signed the agreement (under President Petro Poroshenko), which made Ukraine part of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area a few years later.

Since the beginning of the war, Russian forces have deployed modern landmines (such as the POM-3) in Ukraine’s eastern regions. One of the key reasons why landmines are widely used on the battlefield is that they are designed to hurt rather than kill. Long-term medical care costs much more than a funeral, making landmines a tool of psychological and economic attrition against an adversary. Today, landmines contaminate dozens of countries worldwide. Specifically, those landmines threaten approximately 60 million people across more than 50 countries. Some of the most heavily landmined regions include Afghanistan, Cambodia, Iraq, and South Korea. In 2023 alone, landmine explosions reportedly caused 5,757 casualties, 84 % of whom were civilians, with 37 % being children.

As mentioned above, Russia has been deploying one of the most advanced landmines – POM-3, which is specifically designed to detonate in response to ground vibrations. Unlike conventional landmines requiring manual placement, POM-3 landmines are launched from rocket systems, stopping in midair before descending to the ground via parachutes. Additionally, they can be programmed to function as time-delay explosives, allowing commanders to control when a landmine area is safe to cross. Russian forces do not limit their use of landmines to only POM-3 or to the front lines. Reports indicate that mines have been planted in cut-out asphalt on roads, inside civilian homes, on vehicles, and even beneath the bodies of fallen soldiers and civilians. This brutal tactic significantly increases civilian casualties and complicates Ukraine’s post-war recovery. Landmined areas cannot be safely cultivated, severely impacting the country’s agriculture and economy. Consequently, the deployment of landmines has far-reaching consequences. Clearing these deadly weapons will take decades and require vast financial resources. The heaviest burden will fall on ordinary citizens, who will continue to face this threat long after the conflict ends.

The war’s impact on global food security

Ukraine earned its nickname “world’s breadbasket” for a reason, mainly thanks to its geographical location. Its combination of being located on a landscape that consists of 95 % flat plains and has several rivers creates highly optimal conditions for fertile farmland. Approximately 57 % of its land is used as arable land and is unique thanks to its fertile black soil (chernozem). Knowing these facts, it is no surprise that the country is one of the leading global exporters of some food products such as grain, corn, and oilseed.

Before the invasion in 2022, Ukraine accounted for 46 % of the world’s sunflower oil supply and 38 % of global grain exports (including wheat, barley, and corn). According to the World Food Programme, Ukraine’s agricultural output in 2021 was enough to feed 400 million people worldwide. So, any disruptions in Ukraine’s agriculture sector threaten its security and jeopardize food security in numerous other countries. The ongoing war has severely constrained the country’s ability to cultivate, harvest, and export its produce, creating ripple effects across the global food market. Ukrainian agricultural exports were primarily directed toward developing nations across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. It is known that many countries in these regions heavily depend on food imports. One of the critically reliant on Ukrainian wheat was, for example, Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey, Morocco, Tunisia, Lebanon, Yemen, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the Philippines.

In general, any international and regional crises disproportionately affect poorer nations, even if they are not directly involved in the conflict. A recent example was the COVID-19 pandemic, which initially seemed to have limited direct impact on Africa regarding infection rates. Still, it ultimately led to significant socio-economic consequences, slowing progress toward achieving the United Nations’ sustainable development goals (SDGs). The war in Ukraine had dramatically altered global food supply chains because, before the war, only 2 % of Ukrainian wheat exports were exported to European markets. However, between February 2022 and 2023, the situation changed drastically. The number of wheat exports delivered to African countries has decreased, while over 52 % were now redirected to the European market. By 2023, Africa accounted for less than 3 % of Ukraine’s total wheat exports.

Despite these challenges, Ukraine’s agricultural exports have not completely come to a halt. According to data from the Ukrainian Grain Association, the country exported over 57 million tons of various crops during the agricultural season in 2023-2024. However, the African Development Bank Group reports that the combined impact of reduced food imports and rising energy prices (which is also directly linked to the war) has driven up consumer prices in multiple countries and led to the deterioration of food security. The World Bank defines food security as a situation in which “all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” However, the ongoing war continues to disrupt every stage of the food supply chain from Ukraine.

Having landmines across farmland is not the only reason why this is happening. Before 2022, about 90 % of Ukrainian agriculture exports were transported through the Black Sea. Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian ports has significantly restricted these shipments, forcing Ukraine to seek alternative export routes through rail and road transport. However, these alternative methods are less efficient and more costly, contributing to rising global food prices.

Transforming supply chains

Countries that once relied heavily on Ukrainian grain have been forced to adjust, seeking new trade routes and partnerships to safeguard food security. The shifting dynamics of global agriculture are a reminder that food security is deeply intertwined with international politics, and the consequences of this war will continue to shape markets for years to come.

For instance, Ukraine supplied approximately 40 % of its wheat exports to North Africa, with half going to Egypt. Egypt, where over half the population lives below the poverty line, heavily depends on affordable food imports. Food insecurity has plagued the nation for decades, with major „bread riots“ erupting in 1977 and 2013, severely impacting its political stability. Given the disruption caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and projections that its population will grow to 190 million by 2050, Egypt has taken significant steps to strengthen its food security by investing in domestic agriculture development and diversifying its suppliers. Indonesia has followed a similar approach. According to AfriCensus Indonesia has already reduced its reliance on Ukrainian wheat by drastically increasing imports from other sources such as Australia, Canada, European Union, and Russia. In the period of 2022-2023, Russia accounted for just 2 % of Indonesia’s wheat imports, while the EU supplied 4 %. Russia’s share had jumped to 13 % only a year later, while the EU provided 20 %. Turkey found itself at the center of grain export negotiations. In the year 2022, Turkey made a deal between Ukraine, Russia, and the UN to restore the export of Ukrainian grain that had been blocked by Russian forces. The negotiations were initially successful. Even the UN Secretary-General António Guterres declared that this deal proves that dialogue between Ukraine and Russia is possible. However, Russia withdrew from the deal a year later, so the grain shipments were stopped again. Turkey continues to struggle with the consequences of this breakdown, as it remains a key transit hub for Black Sea trade.

The long road to demining

In 2024, Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy came up with a strategic document titled the National Mine Action Strategy. This comprehensive report details the extent of landmine contamination across the country and its far-reaching consequences. It emphasizes that the landmine threat is one of the most pressing challenges Ukraine faces—not only in terms of civilian safety but also due to its severe impact on the socioeconomic development of affected regions. This document reports that since the beginning of the invasion up until January last year, 889 civilians have fallen victim to landmines and other explosive hazards, resulting in 277 fatalities (including 14 children).

The next part of the document outlines the legal framework governing the demining process. It considers Ukraine’s international commitments, including the Ottawa Convention, which has been a signatory since 2006, and key national legislative measures related to demining efforts. Among the most recent regulations are: resolution No. 314 (March 2022) „Some Issues of Ensuring Economic Activity under Martial Law“, resolution No. 123 (February 2024) – „On the Implementation of an Experimental Project on Certification of Mine Action Operators and Mine Action Processes“ and resolution No. 271 (March 2024) „On the Implementation of an Experimental Project on Mandatory Certification of Mechanized Demining Equipment (Humanitarian Demining), Related Products, Components, and Equipment“.

The most crucial part of this document is Ukraine’s specific demining goal: drastically reducing landmine contamination across its territory by 2033. This goal is structured into three distinct phases:

1. 2024-2026 – Identification and mapping of minefields, as well as determining priority regions for demining,
2. 2027–2029 – Deployment of advanced technologies and the restoration of land for productive use,
3. 2030–2033 – Achieving the clearance of up to 80 % of contaminated areas

 

The Ukrainian government has set a clear goal, but to fully grasp the issue’s complexity and understand how much time might take the whole process, it is essential to consider external predictions. Independent analyses suggest that achieving this objective could be significantly more challenging than anticipated. For instance, Euronews reports that demining could take up to 30 years unless significant technological advancements are made in the coming years. According to GLOBSEC, the process could take even 757 years. This vast discrepancy in estimates reflects the sheer scale of contamination and the unpredictability of the war’s progression. Every day of combat adds new landmines and explosive traps to the already hazardous terrain. One thing remains certain: Ukraine will be dealing with the consequences of landmine contamination for decades.

 

Beyond the issue of land usability, there is also the challenge of agricultural recovery, as many farmers have fled the country. However, Ukraine is not facing this challenge alone. The European Union and the G7 nations, including the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, the United States, and other geographically distant countries like Australia, China, and India, have all contributed military, humanitarian, and financial support. The European Union stands out in these efforts, providing over €320 million, including pyrotechnic vehicles, robotic systems, and essential equipment for demining operations.

Challenges and recommendations

Post-conflict Ukraine will have to embark on reconstruction and face enormous challenges in rebuilding its land and infrastructure. The country must contend with massive costs related to modernizing its critical infrastructure, clearing farmland of landmines and unexploded ordnance, undertaking environmental restoration, acquiring modern agricultural equipment, addressing its demographic crisis, and motivating citizens to return to work in the agricultural sector. Ukraine’s ability to rehabilitate its agricultural lands and ensure a safe environment for its people will largely depend on sustained international support, particularly from NGOs that bring expertise, resources, and innovative solutions to the table.

One of the most urgent priorities is mine clearance, an area where international NGOs play a crucial role. Organizations such as HALO Trust and Handicap International are at the forefront of providing technical assistance. Without them, even national governments would struggle to handle the immense challenge of demining. For Ukraine, continuing to leverage the expertise of such organizations is essential. A particularly promising partner is APOPO, a Belgium-based nonprofit organizations which specialize in innovative demining methods. Since 2024, APOPO has conducted survey missions in Ukraine, utilizing its unique HeroRATs (trained rats) and HeroDOGs (trained dogs) to detect landmines. These cost-effective and highly efficient methods make APOPO’s services an almost invaluable asset for Ukraine in the future.

 

Sources

African Development Bank Group (2024). African economic outlook 2024. Driving Arica’s Transformation. The Reform of the Global Financial Achitecture (https://www.afdb.org/sites/default/files/2024/06/06/aeo_2024_-_chapter_1.pdf, accessed February 2, 2025).

AgroPolit (2022). Супутники NASA показують, що росія контролює 22% сільгоспугідь України. July 7, 2022 (https://agropolit.com/news/24064-suputniki-nasa-pokazuyut-scho-rosiya-kontrolyuye-22-silgospugid-ukrayini, accessed February 15, 2025).

Amir, Syed Raiyan (2024). The Truth About Turkey’s Interest in Russia–Ukraine Grain Trade. Fair Observer. 27 August, 2024 (https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/the-truth-about-turkeys-interest-in-russia-ukraine-grain-trade/#, accessed February 16, 2025).

APOPO (n.d.). About landmines (https://apopo.org/what-we-do/detecting-landmines-and-explosives/about-landmines/, accessed February 2, 2025).

APOPO (n.d.). Rebuilding Lives through Mine Clearance (https://apopo.org/what-we-do/detecting-landmines-and-explosives/where-we-work/apopo-in-ukraine/, accessed February 15, 2025).

Balma, Lacina – Heidland, Tobias, Woldemichael – Andinet et al. (2023). Long-run impacts of the conflict un Ukraine on grain imports and prices in Africa. Wiley (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8268.12745, accessed February 4, 2025).

BBC (2024). How much grain is Ukraine exporting and how is it leaving the country? April 2, 2024 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-61759692, accessed February 2, 2025).

Bébada, Mègnon Didier (2023). Deal or no grain deal, Africa is too dependent on global good markets. Geneva Solutions. July 17, 2023 (https://genevasolutions.news/global-news/deal-or-no-grain-deal-africa-is-too-dependent-on-global-food-markets, accessed February 4, 2025).

Bychkovska, Yulia (2024). Ukraine’s grain exports are crucial to Africa’s food security. Atlantic Council. April 5, 2024 (https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/ukraines-grain-exports-are-crucial-to-africas-food-security/, accessed February 4, 2025).

ČT24 (2014). Ukrajina podepsala asociační dohodu s EU, Rusko varuje před následky. June 27, 2014 (https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/clanek/svet/ukrajina-podepsala-asociacni-dohodu-s-eu-rusko-varuje-pred-nasledky-334214, accessed February 10, 2025).

European Parliament (2024). Ukrainian agriculture. From Russian invasion to EU integration (https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2024/760432/EPRS_BRI(2024)760432_EN.pdf, accessed February 3, 2025).

Garbino, Henrique – Riquier, Marie (2023). War in the breadbasket: Landmines and food security in Ukraine. SIPRI. November 16, 2023 (https://www.sipri.org/commentary/blog/2023/war-breadbasket-landmines-and-food-security-ukraine, accessed February 2, 2025).

Glauber, Joseph (2024). Ukraine and global agricultural markets two years later. IFPRI. February 26, 2024 (https://www.ifpri.org/blog/ukraine-and-global-agricultural-markets-two-years-later/, accessed February 10, 2025).

Chaika, Anna (2024). War in Ukraine: Land mines to hurt food exports for years. Deutsche Welle. October 16, 2024 (https://www.dw.com/en/russias-war-in-ukraine-landmines-and-contamination-threaten-food-security/a-70448256, accessed February 2, 2025).

Karlík, Tomáš – Prouza, Petr (2022). Rusko na Ukrajině nasadilo své nejmodernější miny. Zřejmě rozeznají i člověka od zvířete. ČT24. April 21, 2022 (https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/clanek/veda/rusko-na-ukrajine-nasadilo-sve-nejmodernejsi-miny-zrejme-rozeznaji-i-cloveka-od-zvirete-21615, accessed February 2, 2025).

EU4ukraine (n.d.). The EU’S response to the war in Ukraine (https://eu4ukraine.eu/en, accessed February 15, 2025).

Murphy, Dan (2013). Bread riots or bankruptcy: Egypt faces stark economic choices. The Christian Science Monitor. April 3, 2013 (https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2013/0403/Bread-riots-or-bankruptcy-Egypt-faces-stark-economic-choices, accessed February 15, 2025).

Musil, Adam – Zeman, Drahoslav (2022). U Kyjeva se našel další masový hrob. Rusové nastražují miny v domácnostech i autech. ČT24. April 10, 2022 (https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/clanek/svet/u-kyjeva-se-nasel-dalsi-masovy-hrob-rusove-nastrazuji-miny-v-domacnostech-i-autech-22114, accessed February 2, 2025).

Overheid (n.d.). Treaty database (https://treatydatabase.overheid.nl/en/Treaty/Details/008170_b#Ukraine, accessed February 12, 2025).

Pifer, Steven (2014). Poroshenko Signs EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. Brookings. June 27, 2014 (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/poroshenko-signs-eu-ukraine-association-agreement/, accessed February 14, 2025).

Reliefweb (2024). Ukraine National Mine Action Strategy and its Operational Plan (2024-2033) [EN/UK]. September 17, 2024 (https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/ukraine-national-mine-action-strategy-and-its-operational-plan-2024-2033-enuk, accessed February 12, 2025).

Rozhkov, Artem – Serebriakova, Christina (2024). Ukraine is back in the game for Indonesian wheat market. Miller magazine. January 17, 2024 (https://millermagazine.com/blog/ukraine-is-back-in-the-game-for-ndonesian-wheat-market-5505, accessed February 16, 2025).

Shcherbak, Alla (2023). 757 years needed to fully demine Ukraine at current pae, GLOBSEC analysts estimate. The new voice of Ukraine. November 3, 2023 (https://english.nv.ua/nation/experts-estimate-it-will-take-ukraine-757-years-to-fully-demine-at-current-rate-50365506.html, accessed February 12, 2025).

Tarassevych, Alexander (2014). Ukraine halts fruit and vegetable exports to Russia. USDA Foreign Agriculture Service (https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/report/downloadreportbyfilename?filename=Ukraine%20halts%20fruit%20and%20vegetable%20exports%20to%20Russia_Kiev_Ukraine_10-24-2014.pdf, accessed February 14, 2025).

The Food and Agriculture Organization (n.d.). Ukraine (https://www.fao.org/4/y2722e/y2722e17.htm, accessed February 3, 2025).

Trebesch, Christoph – Irto, Giuseppe – Nishikawa, Taro (2023). The Ukraine Support Tracker. Kiel institute for the world economy (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/, accessed February 15, 2025).

Vakulina, Sasha (2024). What will it take to demine Ukraine, the world’s largest minefield? Euronews. October 10, 2024 (https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/10/10/what-will-it-take-to-demine-ukraine-the-worlds-largest-minefield, accessed February 12, 2025).

Waisová, Šárka (2008). Poválečná obnova budování míru. Role a strategie mezinárodních nevládních organizací (Brno: Mezinárodní politologický ústav).

Walker, Shaun (2013). Ukraine’s EU trade deal will be catastrophic says Russia. The Guardian. September 22, 2013 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/22/ukraine-european-union-trade-russia, accessed February 14, 2025).

Wally, Ahmed (2022). Decline in Ukraine Wheat Imports Drives Egypt to Diversify its Suppliers. USDA Foreign Agriculture Service. June 22, 2022 (https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Decline%20in%20Ukraine%20Wheat%20Imports%20Drives%20Egypt%20to%20Diversify%20its%20Suppliers%20_Cairo_Egypt_EG2022-0015.pdf, accessed February 16, 2025).

World Bank Group (2024). Seeds of Hope: Helping Ukraine’s Farmers Build Resilience (https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/immersive-story/2024/10/03/seeds-of-hope-helping-ukraine-farmers-build-resilience, accessed February 3, 2025).

World Bank Group (n.d.). What is Food Security? (https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/brief/food-security-update/what-is-food-security, accessed February 2, 2025).

Source of the picture: https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/04/08/diy-landmine-clearing-is-putting-ukrainian-farmers-in-danger

 

Written by Michaela Konopásková

5