Is the USA prepared for a land invasion of Iran?

The Price of Oil and Cost of War: Framing the US-Iran Conflict

The Middle East is one of the most important regions of the world. Mainly with their oil supply, which is highly strategic and essential to the day-to-day functioning of modern humanity. The struggle begins when there is conflict in this region. Conflicts of this type are nothing new for the Middle East region. However, this time it’s a bit different, mainly because of Iran’s oil supply and strategic location. As the conflict started to burn between Iran, the USA, and Israel. In the last few weeks, we heard about the possibility of land invasion by American troops. There is a question that begins to surge. Is the USA really prepared for a land invasion? Due to a modernisation of military tactics and a new wave of attack drones that are taking the main part of warfare these days, as we see in Ukraine. Will the USA be prepared for this type of warfare, even when it is the biggest army in the world with the highest military budget that we have ever seen?

Operation Epic Fury: From Strikes to Energy Stalemate

Operation Epic Fury, as it was named by the American administration, started on 28. February 2026. This Operation was mostly for the reason presented as destroying Iran’s offensive missile equipment, its missile production, navy, and other security infrastructure. However, the main point presented by the US administration and Israeli forces was to ensure that Iran would never have nuclear weapons. The United States engaged mainly in this conflict at the request of its Israeli ally. They also wanted to inherit their right to self-defense as Iranian forces started to attack their bases in response to the initial attacks that occur on 28 of February. The counterattack made by Iranian forces struck other allies of the US and Israel at the start of the conflict. Including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Oman.  The problem came right after that. The war got into a stalemate when Iran closed the main reasons for today’s gas prices. Strait of Hormuz. As one of the most important routes for global oil transport. It is a strategic place for the whole world. However, there are rumors that the big point of attack made by the US was mainly inspired by seizing Iran’s oil production located on Kharg Island. Kharg Island is strategically important for the world oil supply because it’s where 90% of Iran’s crude oil export is processed. Remarkably, this location accounts for nearly 20% of the global oil market. The situation at the strategic place of Kharg Island was not idyllic either. As Kharg Island is a place that can be mainly considered as a weak spot for the Iranian side. This place was even attacked by many precision strikes on 13. of March. After that, Donald Trump even warned about possible further operations on Kharg Island. As the question of a possible land attack emerges, the situation in the Middle East is not coming to an end, but it’s escalating even more. The question is, will the USA try to seize Iran’s oil reserve by land attack? This situation is more than complicated as these days both sides are coming from a ceasefire to a full-blown conflict over and over. This situation is mainly hitting the gas market price as it is coming up and down day by day.

Miscalculating Tehran: Strategic Limits of Invasion and Ghosts of the Past

Is there a possibility of an American land invasion in Iran? As the situation deepens, the possibility of land invasion is getting bigger and bigger. Operation in Iran has taken much of the US military capabilities to use them in Iran. The US is mainly operating through using its aircraft carriers, bombers, and missile systems these days. The count of used missiles has gone up significantly, so even the USA is a bit worried because its stockpiles need a bit of a refill. Military contractors are getting a lot of money from the Trump administration, which is pouring a lot of money into its defense budget. As Trump even said that they want to go up to 1.5 trillion dollars in defense, but mainly by 2027. The USA is still considering its land invasion as they want to refill their stockpiles of Tomahawk missiles and other as the threat of China invading Taiwan is emerging too.

Back in Iran, the invasion already involved many missiles and other long-range weapons. No one can know how much army potential the US will use in a possible war with Iran. As analysts say that a land invasion of Iran would be really difficult for the US side. Due to its rugged terrain, it would mean supply difficulties, but also the fact that it is not impossible. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the US will do whatever is necessary to prevent Iran from having nuclear capability are never be achieved.

The problem is that even American citizens are against using their troops in a land invasion of Iran. Only about every fourth American asked by Reuters approved of US-Israel strikes against Iran.

Most people are comparing the possible US invasion of Iran with the invasion of Afghanistan. That conflict started more than 20 year long route of American war in the region. The war in Afghanistan ended after 20 years, and with no good outcome, as the Taliban took over pretty fast after American soldiers left. This conflict left around 170 000 people dead. A similar situation was in Iraq in 2003. The United States made a land invasion against Saddam Hussein to ensure the destruction of his nuclear capabilities. This conflict left around 150 000 to a million dead people at the end of 2011.

Another problem is that the US wanted a swift campaign, similar to the operation in Venezuela. The task was a fast invasion, denuclearization, and possible regime change in Iran. The US side demanded an unconditional surrender by the Iranian regime. First, even Donald Trump himself refused to talk about sending American troops into Iran as part of a ground force. These talks became even more real as the operation was not going according to plan. The Iranian side made a huge defense campaign. The US side became aware that airpower alone is insufficient, and it is not moving them closer to their goal. Airpower strikes can cause much damage, but they can never fully liberate any land. The US administration is forced to solve this problem as soon as possible. The world lost around 20% of its annual oil production, which is pushing the prices of this commodity still higher. We can say that the US administration of Donald Trump and his ally Benjamin Netanyahu strongly underestimated the situation at the start of the operation. Both leaders underestimated Iran’s capability to resist and ride out the attacks. That is placing Donald Trump in a bad position as he needs the Strait of Hormuz opened, but the situation is still coming back and forth, as one day it is opened with a truce on the table, and another day, the whole truce talks are gone, and the Strait is back at a stalemate. This is not good for his administration, as this war is largely unpopular in the US. From the start of the conflict, the US got a few smaller victories on its side. They are focusing on and taking down Iran’s leaders in defense, as they are targeting these people to undermine the capability of Iran’s defense capabilities. They also killed the Supreme Leader of Alí Khamenei and injured the new Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei. Even President Trump commented on this topic, saying, „most of the people we had in mind are dead“. He mainly pointed out people who are capable of running Iran and resisting.

Boots on Iranian Ground: Projected Phases and Tactical Nightmares

Iran’s landscape is much larger than Iraq’s. Due to its mountain terrain, it would mean a strategic and supply hell for American soldiers. Its terrain would make the whole invasion costly and would be very slow. For that, even Kurds in that region refused to help the US. The route from Pakistan would be possible due to strong opposition against the USA. The most preferable way of attack would be from Iran’s coastline, as it remains mostly strategic due to its oil reserves and is really vulnerable to a possible invasion. This coastline position would most likely be reflected by troops deployed by the Iranian side. Iran would count on such a big deployment of their troops, while most likely being helped by locals who would volunteer to defend the coastline with Iranian troops. A land invasion by the US would be really hard to push through with all of the above. The war would most likely fall into the category of a long, drawn-out war and a war of attrition. As the US administration is running out of time, the long-drawn conflict is the last thing that they need. The war would then become a stalemate as the US does not and will not have the political approval of its citizens, and Iran does not have a wide range of economic resources except for oil, which would most likely be taken by the US as a priority. Iran also has no international support of their regime to sustain a drawn-out conflict on their own soil.

The problem is that even with US armament superiority over Iran, they could not dominate forever. Even with the US being much stronger, there are possibilities for Iran. At the start of April, Iranian forces announced that they had successfully shot down a US fighter jet. The jet that was shot down was an F-15, which is an older model of today’s fighter jets, but still capable of doing great damage. There, we can see that the US side is not untouchable and that it can be in danger. This was not good for the US side, and it is casting a scary look at a possible land invasion. It may not be that much, but the connection between this event and possible strategic complications could result in a disaster for the US side.

Another point of view could be made from the Iranian side. Their armament potential is not greater than the US military’s capacities. They are still very visible as they possess cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, the same as the US. Their speciality can be shown mainly in their drones. Drones from Iran are used in many wars and by many armies around the world. Most notable can be seen in Ukraine, where Russian forces are using their drones that have a big impact on strategic infrastructure and can cut Ukrainian forces off from their supply routes. Iran is mainly focusing on the production of their drones as they are a lot cheaper than ballistic and cruise missiles.

The Brink of Chaos: Ceasefire Cycles and Tactical Volatility

Today, the situation is still complicated. The possibility of land invasion is slowly evaporating, and both sides are looking more into making peace at last. The problem is that were is jumping from an active war to a peace all the time. Now we are more in the time of negotiations as of 22. In June of 2026, there were negotiations in Switzerland. The negotiations speak about that they need to do hard work to make peace with each other. They are encouraging the progress that they have made. Peace can be a run on a long road due to the fact that both sides are making amends to ease the situation, but both sides are accusing each other of the progress they have made. As Hormuz is getting from open to closed with everyday. At least a few of the ships can come through, which is making oil prices a bit more stable than they were, but it is still not in a very good position. This is very good, mainly for the US side, as they are lowering the tensions with global oil prices going down. On this basis, we are still not in the same position as before the war.

The big question is how the situation is in Lebanon and Israel? As this part of the war is important too. Iran is not willing to let Lebanon fall while they are in peace talks. Israel was forced by the US to stop attacking them so they could make some progress. The USA really needs to force Israel not to attack anymore, so it can lower gas prices even more and make sure that it will force Iran not to have nuclear weapons, mainly through negotiations. As written above, the USA may bet he strongest army in the world, but for a land invasion of this scale, they much likely not prepared and would result in a hard war of attrition, which is not good for the attacking state.

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Written by Tomáš Hutta

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